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SOFTWARE IS OVER.

The 20-year SaaS bull market is ending in agents and ash. Stock Shorter reads the obituaries early — and shorts accordingly.

BY THE SHORT DESK · ILLUSTRATED WITH MOCKUP DATA

01 / The Thesis

Every seat-based license is a short waiting to happen.

SaaS was priced for two decades of compounding. AI agents don't buy seats, don't renew contracts, and don't churn slowly. When the revenue goes, the multiple goes first — and that gap is the trade. Read the full thesis →

0%

of core SaaS workflows exposed to agentic AI substitution

$0T

in legacy software market cap inside the blast radius

0MO

median time from “AI does this now” to visible revenue decline

02 / The Obituaries

In Memoriam.

Software categories the desk has already written off. Run your cursor across one to liquidate it — your book gets the credit. All names fictional, all data illustrative.

LIQUIDATED 0/4YOUR CREDIT +$0
In MemoriamMid-Market CRM2004 — 202?The eulogy is drafted. The date is the only thing the desk hasn't published.CAUSE: PENDING
🔒 THE NEXT OBITUARY IS ALREADY WRITTENSUBSCRIBE FREE TO READ IT EARLY
In MemoriamPer-Query Moats1998 — 202?Paywalled databases versus a model that read everything. It wasn't close.CAUSE: PENDING
🔒 MEMBERS READ THIS ONE LAST WEEKSUBSCRIBE FREE TO CATCH UP

It starts as a footnote.

A churn number nobody reads, in a filing nobody opens.

Then a guidance cut.

“Macro headwinds.” The desk knows what it actually is.

Then all at once.

The repricing doesn't ask permission. By now, you're already positioned.

SAAS-50 100.0EDITION 0% BURNEDYOUR BOOK +$0

03 / After the Burn

Red on their screen. Green on yours.

This is what lands in your inbox while the obituaries are still in draft. Every alert ships with the full setup — thesis, structure, entry, invalidation, hedge.

SHORT ALERT #047 — SAMPLE
TickerVNDR — Vendara Systems (fictional)
SetupAI displacement · churn accelerating
StructureShort equity + Jan put spread
Entry$48.20
Invalidation$53.40 — NRR re-accelerates
Target$31.00 ▼
Modeled P&L at target+35.7% ▲
01The SetupWhy this name, why now — the AI substitution evidence, cohort data, catalyst calendar.
02The TradeExact structure: equity short, put spreads, or pairs against AI winners. Sized, with invalidations.
03The HedgeEvery short is paired with the long side of disruption — positioned for the rotation, not just the wreckage.
04The UpdatePosition tracking weekly until close. We publish our misses, too.

04 / The Desk

A trading floor for the unwind.

#DESK-FLOOR — LIVE
@churn_watcher21:04

NRR slipped under 100 for the third straight quarter. The footnote says everything the call didn't.

@delta_neutral21:06

Paired it against the AI infra basket like alert #044. +12% on the spread since open.

@ten_k_diver21:09

Their biggest customer just posted a job for “agent orchestration lead.” That's the renewal walking out the door.

12,431Desk members & counting · about the Desk →

05 / Join

Pick your side of the trade.

The disruption happens either way. The only question is whether your portfolio is positioned for it.

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